World Cup: Odds Against Nigeria

The odds are slim for Nigeria to win the 2014 World Cup – some pundits put it at 200/1, others 301/1. No one can blame the analysts for having little faith in the team, after all the Super Eagles have never gone beyond the second round of the competition even after making four appearances since 1994.

While teams like Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain and Italy are more favoured to win the tournament, it is a fact that only seeded teams have won the World Cup, except for the editions in 1954, 1958, 1970 and 1986.

Only the top eight in the October FIFA ranking were seeded during the draw, but Nigeria coach Stephen Keshi and some of his players are holding on to a dream that they might just win the World Cup in Brazil, a dream not supported by statistics.

Nigeria have had a wonderful year in 2013, lifting the Africa Cup of Nations, playing in the FIFA Confederations Cup and qualifying for the World Cup, maintaining an unbeaten run in the process. These, however, may not be enough to put the team on the same pedestal with the top teams in Brazil.

“The World Cup is a different ball game and should not be confused with the Nations Cup which we won,” Oladimeji Lawal, a former Nigeria midfielder, said.

Lawal, who regards the Super Eagles as the best team in Africa, irrespective of the latest FIFA ranking, said it would be near impossible for Nigeria to win the tournament.

“I don’t see us winning the World Cup; the team has to be extraordinary to achieve such a feat,” he said.

“The FIFA Confederations Cup was sample of how the World Cup would be, and see how we performed. We couldn’t handle Spain and Uruguay.”

Lawal described the Group F, which has Nigeria, Argentina, Iran and Bosnia-Hezergovina as a tricky one, saying Iran coach Carlos Queiroz knows a lot on how to handle African teams.

“At the Saudi’89 Under-20 World Cup, Queiroz coached Portugal and they beat us 2-1 at the group stage. He told us after that game that if we meet again they would beat us. We met again in the final and they beat us 2-1. He’s a strategist Nigeria should be wary of,” he said.

Another former international, Olusegun Fetuga, said Nigeria’s problem is the lack of consistency in team selection. His argument is that the team building has taken too long and involved too many players.

“We’ve used many players, who are not supposed to be in the team, instead of being consistent with the better ones,” he said.

“Out of patriotism, I can say Nigeria will get to the semi-final, but that would be pushing our luck too far. We have good players but we’re far behind in having a solid team.”

He added, “Our players will have to be extraordinary to beat the other teams who have players featuring in top competitions regularly.”

Compared to the top contenders in Brazil, Nigeria have the least of the top players playing regularly in Europe.

Mikel Obi, who is considered to be Nigeria’s brightest in Europe will have most of the pressure to keep the team afloat in Brazil.

Despite being just 26 years old, he is the central hub of the Nigeria team in both the creative and defensive sense. With over 50 caps, Mikel has firmly established himself in the Super Eagles. A useful member of the Chelsea team, Mikel is always prepared to sit back and pass from one side to another, maintaining possession rather than giving it away.

For Nigeria, he operates more as an attacking midfielder, and it shows with the fact that he has four goals for the national tam, one more than his total haul for the Blues in 283 appearances. If Nigeria are to provide any sort of resistance in the tough group, Mikel will need to be at the top of his game to provide some stability in the midfield.

While Mikel can make up for a lack of World Cup experience with his top-level football in Europe, only Brown Ideye, Austin Ejide, Obinna Nsofor and Elderson Echiejile have such experience in the current squad. The rest are neophytes at this level.

To make their case worse, some of them hardly feature regularly for their respective clubs in Europe. Godfrey Oboabona, Bright Dike, Nnamdi Oduamadi, John Ogu and Reuben Gabriel, among others, lack the topflight football experience needed to boost the team.

Olympic gold medallist, Mobi Oparaku, insisted Nigeria have better players in Europe than the aforementioned, saying Keshi’s selection had been based on sentiment.

“It is a pipe dream if we think we can win the World Cup with these players. The coach has deliberately left out top players like Osaze Odemwingie, Joseph Yobo, Lukman Haruna, Ikechukwu Uche and many others. These players feature regularly in Europe and we watch them on television so how can anyone compare them with the ones that don’t play,” Oparaku said.

“Nothing is impossible, but if we must impress at the World Cup, I’m not saying winning it, then we must be twice as good as what we played against Italy.”